There are two approaches to this question. Those who focus on
Nigeria’s potential and, therefore, see Nigeria’s glass as only half
full, will tell you that the country remains a “great” one (a
self-delusion that once characterised our rebranding slogan). But those
who focus on the perpetual wastage of Nigeria’s potential, and,
therefore, see the country’s glass as half-empty, will tell you that
Nigeria is a “failing” (if not “failed”) state. The ruling class belongs
to the first group, while the vast majority of the population belongs
to the latter.
Those who belong to the latter group are not denying Nigeria’s human
and natural resources as well as her fertile land and agricultural
potential. They are not even denying what Nigeria’s ruling class has
been able to accomplish since independence. What they are saying is that
Nigeria’s future has been seriously compromised by a myopic and corrupt
leadership, fixated on oil resources to the neglect of other natural
resources as well as human and agricultural potential. The consequences
would have been more tolerable had oil and gas revenues been judiciously
expended for sustainable development instead of being repeatedly
looted. What is left is a country in crisis on all fronts. Hubert
Ogunde’s “Yoruba ro’nu”, a lyric composed following the Western Nigeria
crisis of 1964-65, could now be adapted for Nigeria as a whole.
But don’t be surprised that, in consonance with typical Nigerian
leadership culture, the ruling class, always eager to protect its
self-interest, might consider this discussion unpatriotic. However, such
a negative view ignores Nigeria’s relative under-development, mass
poverty, and the varied experiences of millions of suffering Nigerians.
Moreover, it ignores the perception about Nigeria held by the
international community. Anyone in doubt about Nigeria’s freefall should
consider the following facts.
First, given enormous natural and human resources, Nigeria’s progress
has been painfully too slow since independence and it has all but
stagnated since 2006, a significant year for three reasons. One, that
was the year former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s third term plans fell
apart and the politics of succession began, leading to the imposition of
the late President Umaru Yar’Adua on the country. Two, Yar’Adua turned
out to be a lame President on account of an undisclosed terminal
illness. The looting of the treasury during his administration put the
country in financial abyss, which was worsened by the global financial
crisis of 2008. Endemic corruption has prevented Nigeria’s full
recovery, despite rising oil revenues. Today, virtually every branch of
government has showcased more cases of corruption and grandstanding than
substantive achievements. Three, as I will discuss later, 2006 was also
the year Nigeria fell into the “Alert” category on the Failed States
Index.
Second, rather than make progress, the country has fallen even
further below standards, especially in corruption, infrastructure, and
security. True, corruption affects our lives but it does not directly
take our lives. But poor or inadequate infrastructure and insecurity
often do. Thousands die on the country’s decrepit highways just as
thousands lose their lives and property to terrorists, armed robbers,
kidnappers, and pirates. For the first time in the country’s history, an
internal terrorist organisation, typified by suicide bombings and
shifting targets, has been in competition for state power for about two
years, forcing the government to enter into third party negotiations,
none of which has been successful so far.
Third, fractures have intensified along regional, religious, and
ethic divisions. To complicate matters, the elite is also fractured,
often along these divisions, on how to solve the problems facing the
country. There are indications already that these fractures will
intensify even more when the next presidential election comes around in
2015. But these fractures are not new. They were responsible for the
fall of previous Repubics and the rise of military coups. They even once
led to a full blown civil war. What is new is the form these fractures
have taken in the last two years; the intensity of competing claims
along fracture lines; and the government’s fumbling approach to the
ensuing problems.
The cumulative effects of these shortcomings are illustrated daily in
poor infrastructure; inadequate health facilities; declining
educational outcomes and standards; rising unemployment; growing food
insecurity; erosion of values; and lopsided distribution of political
goods in favour of the ruling class and its allies.
If Nigerian leaders fail to acknowledge the sufferings and complaints
of fellow citizens, they should at least ponder the reaction of the
international community, especially as revealed in three major
international indices, all pointing toward a failed state.
First, for six years in a row, the 2012 Failed States Index, which
ranks countries on 12 social, political, and economic indicators, puts
Nigeria in the bottom “Alert” category as the 14th country in the world
that is most likely to fail. Once again, Nigeria falls into this ignoble
category some war-torn countries, such as Somalia, Afghanistan, and
Iraq belong.
Similarly, Nigeria ranked very poorly on the latest Corruption
Perception and Human Development Indices. After countries worldwide were
ranked on bribery, kickbacks, embezzlement, and the strength and
effectiveness of anti-corruption efforts, Nigeria emerged near the
bottom at 143 on the 2011 CPI. Given all the corruption scandals within
the past year, the 2012 CPI (due out on Dec 5) is likely to be worse.
On the leading indicators that affect citizens’ well-being, the Human
Development Index also has bad news for Nigeria. In a comparative
measure of life expectancy, literacy, education, standards of living,
and quality of life for countries worldwide, Nigeria ranked at 156 in
the bottom category of “Low Human Development”.
Of course, Nigeria can boast of its high ranking as the tenth largest
oil producer, owner of the tenth largest oil and gas reserves, and the
sixth largest oil exporter in the world. She can also tout her ranking
as the seventh largest country on earth. However, Nigerian leaders’
failure to capitalise on these positive rankings in transforming Nigeria
into a “strong and virile nation”, as envisaged by the founding
fathers, continues to make the Nigerian glass half empty.
If the oil and gas industry were to suddenly collapse, what would
Nigerian leaders do to sustain the country’s teeming population? This is
a thought they should begin to entertain as many countries worldwide
are working harder and harder on developing alternative sources of
energy. Economic profligacy should end and the diversification of the
economy should begin in earnest. Otherwise, the Nigerian glass will
continue to fall below the half mark until it is completely empty.
- Niyi Akinnaso
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