Wednesday 26 December 2012

When the oil dries off


When The Oil Dries Off–By Debo Adejugbe



“You can’t depend on your eyes when your imagination isout of focus.” – Mark Twain
“What one has, one ought to use: and whatever he does he should do with all his might.”- Cicero
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Few hours after reading Ogunyemi Bukola’s wonderful piece, “A Nigeria without Us; A Nigeria without Oil” here: http://debospeaks.blog.com/?p=120 something odd struck me. This article is an extension of that thought. I agree with the major part of Bukola’s analysis. However, I had a hunch that something was amiss in our prayers requesting that the country’s oil dry up. If you follow “Madam Due Process” ObyEzekwesili on twitter, or have studied some of her papers on the implications of oil in our economy, you will be tempted to agree that, with the present crop of leaders we have, oil is indeed a curse.
I suscribe to the dried-oil anticipation idea—just like countless others, But I’m also of the opinion that if certain urgent measures are not taken first,exhausted oil reserves will not be the solution we so desperately crave.
Let’s now reason together and consider the validity of the following imaginative scenarios in this discussion.
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Herald Newspaper, Tuesday May 3rd, 2067:“Nigerians from all walks of life, last year took the advice given by a prominent man of God some fifty-five years ago, and prayed ceaselessly for the redemption of the Nation. During the course of the three days fasting and prayer embarked upon by all religions in the country, they pleaded with the almighty God to take the curse of oil away amid other demands. God, in his infinite wisdom, looked down on his children and granted their requests.” That was the conclusion of Apostle James of “Word of Mouth Evangelical Ministry” during his sermon last Sunday.
The Daily Punch, Friday May 6th, 2067Confirming the present situation in the country, the President,in his monthly broadcast, stated that “oil reserves are now mostly dry, with little or no success in sites formerly marked as “oil rich”. The country will focus on other natural resources to generate wealth and guarantee a future for her citizens. Further developments would be relayed to you via the Information Ministry as soon as we have them.”
The atmosphere looks tense at the presidential villa. Our correspondents reported seeing several presidential aides clustered in small numbers, discussing the present predicament in hushed tones.
The Nation on Sunday, May 8th, 2067There are several indications that President Janjo Jaga-Jaga will address the nation again in the next few days. Feelers from the Presidency says it would be an important announcement that will define his emergency policy thrust to counter the effect of dried oil reserves and the massive loss of revenue experienced in the last few days. A staff of the villa who spoke under condition of anonymity explained that: “The President has proposed a position in an announcement shocking to several of his aides and there are still a few people trying to make him shift his rigid stance.”
The Guardian, Monday May 9, 2067The last few days have been frantic ones at the Presidency. Our sources informed us that the President met with several opinion groups, religious leaders, labour unions and other stakeholders to hammer out a plan to save Nigeria from the chaos of dried oil reserves.
According to the Presidential spokesperson, Fatai Abelejayan,the “important announcement has now been postponed till the President’s return from his tour of Ghana, Libya, Cameroon and some other African countries who have been able to mitigate the effect of dried oil reserves or ‘no oil’ reserve.”
Herald Newspaper, Tuesday June 7th, 2067
The President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria returned from his tour of Africa on Sunday and has promptly released a statement to the press through his media assistant on the direction the country would take in the next few months of his Presidency to counter the effect of the dried oil reserves. Notable among the plans highlighted are the following:
I. The Federal Government will take a critical look at the civil service and make a drastic cut of 50% to the nation’s workforce as a way of saving funds and guaranteeing that the nation will not burst with the present burden on her shoulders.
II. The president has inaugurated a think-tank to look at alternative sources of wealth generation to enable the government meet its obligation to the citizens. Several leading industrialists were named as members of the select group.
III. All Primary, Secondary and Tertiary institutions are now required to maintain only one staff per taught subject to further save funds and make schools standards to emulate around Africa.
IV. The President sent a list comprising forty two (42) additional names to the National Assembly for approval as “aides and advisers whose help will be of immense value during this difficult period”.
VI. Subsequently, due to the expected increase in the ‘Villa’ staff, the Presidency has proposed an additional N30Bn to the Budget as feeding allowance for the nation’s first family and their aides.
The announcement is generating heated debate among the populace. Several are angry that the sum of fifty five billion Naira (N55bn)already allocated for feeding at the Villa paints a picture of a callous and gluttonous president; even without the additional N30Bn proposed. Some opinion leader shave called for investigation into the nine hundred billion naira (N900bn) that was declared missing from the federation account the moment news of dried oil reserve filtered in. Minor protests are ongoing in Kaduna, Kano, Lagos, Abeokuta, PortHarcourt, Enugu and some other cities around federation.
Follow us on twitter @heraldnewsng or use the hashtag #nigeriaoilprotest for the latest developments on the protests.
Tweets from @heraldnewsng:
“NLC/TUC declared there would be no strike or protest to antagonize President Jaga-Jaga. #oilprotest”
“Scores have been reported injured in Kano protest centre as police opened fire on them despite a peaceful gathering. Trying to confirm the number of casualties #oilprotest”
“Police are shooting at protesters indiscriminately at the Akure protest centre. Photos coming up. #oilprotest”
“FLASH! Breaking News: The minister of finance just announced that US has released $10Trillion to #Nigeria as cushion for oil effect. #oilprotest”
“The sum is expected to be paid back instalmentally over the next fifty years. People are already moaning and groaning #Oilprotest”
The Punch, Friday June 10, 2067
The bloody protests that engulfed several parts of the country in the last few days are gradually fizzling out. Normalcy has returned to major cities and citizens are going about lawful business without incident.
The President, through its spokesperson, announced that “the country will embark on the building of a new ecumenical centre at the heart of the nation’s capital at the cost of $3Trillion”. This, he says “will help us get close to God, praying for a restoration of our oil, which in turn will get us back on the right track of development”. A sum of $2Trillion has been approved for the overhaul of the Presidential jet fleet as they are in a state not befitting the president of the “Giant of Africa”.
Further in the President’s list of “pressing matters” is the upgrade of the houses in the Presidential Villa. An estimated $2trillion has been budgeted for this.
The funds will be sourced from the cushion loan obtained from the United States of America. There are grumblings and mumurs heard from several quarters but no protest has been called, as the NLC/TUC again declared their “total support for the president’s announcement”.
Vanguard Newspaper, Thursday July 14, 2067There are several reports going around in the news media regarding aleaked memo from the Minister of Petroleum to the President and the President’s reply to the Minister. Both “Hackers Anonymous” and Wikileaks have claimed that the online version is indeed the original memo that originated from the Petroleum Ministry, under heavily guarded cryptographic headers that they were able to decipher and reproduce. The reply by president Jaga-Jaga was obtained courtesy “Hackers Anonymous”.
The memo reads in part:
“…due to the recent strain on oil incomes and the N900bn Your Excellency withdrew from the Treasury in the confidence of the Finance Minister and myself, there is a dire need for urgent funds as the recent US loan has already been budgeted for other purposes…. In the light of this fact, there is need for the actions you’ve ordered taken in the civil service/public sector to be executed with immediate effect….”
The president’s reply was short, and we have this part extracted:
“…I would have appreciated it if you came to me with this, rather than this memo. There should be no mention of the N900Billion anywhere again as long as I remain President. Come by after the close of work for further deliberations….”
SaharaReporters, Wednesday August 10, 2067
Our citizen reporter gathered from a reliable Presidential insider this morning, that the government is putting finishing touches to documents required by the World Bank, towards obtaining a loan of $50Trillion….The premise on which the loan will be obtained is “for development and exploration of countless natural resources that abounds in the country. The loan repayment has been structured on a hundred years plan which would take effect on August 2077….”
Now, we’ve have our wish and the oil has dried up, what next?
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Today, Nigeria is the 12th largest producer of petroleum in the world, its 8th largest exporter, and the country with the 10th largest proven reserves. Despite these facts, the country has to sustain itself by importing more than 90% of what it consumes.
Petroleum accounts for 40% of our GDP, and 80% of government earnings—meaning it is the mainstay of our economy and the helipad of corrupt practises.
With an array of several underexploited/abandoned natural resources such as natural gas, coal, zinc, gold, tantalite, tin, limestone, niobium, iron ore, lead and bauxite; added to our expansive underused arable lands, there would still be a lot to be looted if oil -according to our prayers—dries off. A new helipad will be promptly built to cater for the flights of corruption.
Nigeria’s natural gas reserves are said to be well over 187 trillion ft³ (2,800 km³), three times as substantial as the crude oil reserves. But most of these are flared, with the country losing $18.2Million, translating to $546M per month and $6.6Billion in a year. That is just the estimated loss due to flaring, now think about what we’ll be making when the government plugs all the holes and its associated health risks.
According to Wikipedia: “Agriculture used to be the principal foreign exchange earner of Nigeria. At one time, Nigeria was the world’s largest exporter of groundnuts, cocoa, and palm oil and a significant producer of coconuts, citrus fruits, maize, pearl millet, cassava, yams and sugar cane.”
In the nearest future, oil will be mentioned in the same vein, only that the agricultural sector is still redeemable as it stands even though it was abandoned for oil. And with Nigeria accounting for 18% of Africa’s population (that is, one in every four African) and prided as the seventh most populous country in the world, it is becoming a burden to keep up with the rest of the world in robust development. The culprits of these are clear: heavy-duty corruption, inadequate or non-existent planning, retrogressive development and a suicidal mentality of allocating 90% of wealth to just 1% of the population.
With the oil drying off, the 33% export sent into the US (which made Nigeria USA’s fourth largest supplier) will fall, even as Gulf coast refiners have reduced importation from Nigeria by focusing on domestically refined crude. Our share of imports to the US has fallen to 5% in the first half of 2012 as against 10% and 11% in the first half of 2011 and 2010 respectively. And with the reduction in US oil imports, our other major export partners India, Netherlands, Spain, Brazil and France won’t just stand foolishly. Everyone is developing alternatives.
Diversify! Diversify! Diversify! This is the word on the economic streets. We’ve been treated to series of white papers on its benefits; we forget that the ruling class only focuses on the source that brings in the cash until the cow is milked dead and then they run to the next golden goose.
Praying, waiting and counting the days till the oil dries off will further compound our problems. No natural resource can be a curse, it is only our deployment of the resource that hurts our lives. Oil is not our problem! The ruling class and the web of corruption they spin around the oil business is the problem. The earlier we take the fight to them, the better.
I have a feeling that if we wait till the oil dries off, perpetual slavery awaits us because any of the abundance of natural resources bequeathed us by nature can take the place of oil effectively. The journey starts with us, let’s kick out corruption or this http://www.ekekeee.com/?p=4445 will be our story.
Merry Christmas!
I’m @deboadejugbe

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